A Trio Turn: Russia-Turkey-U.S.

The article looks into the relationship trio of the U.S., Turkey, and Russia which formed after Turkey is strengthening its relations with Russia through purchasing the S-400 missile defense system. Apart from that it also explains Russia’s debatable presence in the Middle East. The article also provides a brief introduction of behind the scenes of Russia’s interference in the Middle East by cozying up with Saudi Arabia and Turkey. The article gives the reader an idea of future steps that could be taken by three countries in order to counter each other.

KEYWORDS

Economic ties, NATO, S-400 missile system, Strengthening relations, CAATSA

Driven by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the United States and Turkey have been at odds for at least six years because of their plunge into autocracy, a self-confident brand of Turkish nationalism, and anti-American oratory as well as repeated clashes between two nations over Syrian civil war management. This prolonged crisis between the two NATO allies is now entering a new critical phase.

On Wednesday 29 September 2021 Turkish leader made it clear that Russian President Vladimir V. Putin is a substitute partner for his trade and military approaches.

After the US refused to grant an eye-to-eye meeting with his Turkish counterpart on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA), a discontented and annoyed Recep Tayyip Erdogan told Turkish journalists that he had managed to work well at times with former Presidents, but not with Biden so far. Erdogan also accused the U.S. of supporting terrorist organizations rather than fighting, in reference to the US partnership with the People’s Protection Unit (YPG) in northern Syria.

Meeting for the first time in more than a year, Mr. Putin and Mr. Erdogan discussed weapon deals, trade, and a nuclear reactor Russia is building in Turkey in a three-hour-long meeting at the Black Sea resort city of Sochi, Russia. The Turkish President also stated that Turkey intended to buy a second batch of S-400 missile defense systems from Russia.

Instantly after Erdogan’s statement, the U.S. Senate Conference on Foreign Relations warned that Turkey’s new purchases would be considered as new sanctions under the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA), designed to deter “adversaries” from contentious actions.

“In Washington, Turkey’s purchase of S-400 missile systems is not solely seen as the purchase of a defense system, rather it is perceived as a manifestation of Turkey’s geopolitical identity increasingly shifting from the West and moving closer to Russia and China”, Galip Dalay, an Associate Fellow at Chatham House and researcher at the University of Oxford, stated.

However, much of Mr. Erdogan’s diplomacy with Russia is interpreted as a trading position, alarming the United States by cozying up with Mr. Putin but creating distance when seeking something from Washington.

Russia’s Role in the Middle East

Russia is not a rookie in the Middle East. Over the years Russia has been building ties with major Middle East countries. The 2015 Russian military mediation in Syria was a climactic moment for Moscow’s Middle East policy, Russia intervened to save Bashar al- Assad’s regime and reaffirmed itself as a major player in the power politics of the Middle East region.

The backdrop of the United States pulling back from the Middle East and the growing concern about its future role had created an atmosphere for Russia to step in. The geopolitical realignment and instability caused through the civil wars of Libya and Syria and the rivalry between Iran and Saudi Arabia throw up a golden opportunity to Russia through which it can expand its fleet in the Middle East by repairing some old relationships and by establishing some new ones.

Russian-Iranian relations have undergone an unusual metamorphosis as a result of the Russian intervention in the Syrian civil war. However, On the one hand, Russia wants to return Syria to the status quo ante and reap the benefits of peace and reconstruction. On the other hand, Iran is interested in exploiting Syria as a platform in its campaign against Israel. In this sense, their joint victory is likely to be conflicting.

The Russian-Turkish relationship is not unfamiliar. Russia’s relationship with Turkey has been improving since the drop of the Soviet Union. The key drivers of these relationships are nonetheless trade and energy ties as well as a shared sense of disaffection from the west.

Following Russian intervention in Syria gave it a new quality. Due to the authoritarian politics of the former, the rift between Turkey and the west deepened, eventually reapproaching Turkey to Russia. However, this bonding seems to remain short given the geopolitical, cultural, and historical differences that divide them.

Similar to Turkey, Saudi Arabia for its spike in the outcome of the Syria conflict and antagonism between Iran, Saudi Arabia has a growing interest in coordinating oil production in Russia. This leaves Saudi Arabia with no choice other than to enhance its relationship with Russia, especially at a time when both nations have contended with a climb in U.S. energy production.

US response to Turkey’s purchase of Russia’s S-400 missile system

Many events and steps were taken by Turkey as well as strengthening ties between the two nations have given force to U.S. aggression and insecurities towards Turkey. According to the U.S. State Department, On March 24, 2021, Secretary of State Antony Blinken in a meeting with Turkish Foreign minister Mevlut Cavusoglu urged Ankara to contain Russia’s S-400 missile defense system. Later on July 21, U.S. President Joe Biden committed to maintaining sanctions against Turkey for acquiring the Russian S-400 missile system under Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) and would impose future sanctions if Ankara continued to do so and add major arms systems from Moscow. Further on August 23, 2021, despite a warning of further sanctions Turkey was intended to buy a second batch of S-400 missile defense systems from Russia.

On September 30, Erdogan on returning flight to Turkey told the reporters that he also proposed working with Russia on the construction of two more nuclear power plants and Putin also gave the idea of developing platforms for space and rocket launches. Erdogan stated that the next month at G-20 in Rome he would meet U.S. President Joe Biden as well as at the United Nations Climate Summit in Glasgow, and would discuss the $1.4 billion which Turkey paid for the F-35 jets it can no longer buy.

After commenting on his plans to meet Biden next month on his return from Sochi, he stated, “There are some steps being taken that bode well.”

Conclusion

Turkey and Russia’s relations are not under the veil now; it has been assumed that both countries share a healthy relationship, but this bonding would only be seen in trade and energy if we look closely. However, in reality, both nations’ interests are countering each other on many fronts. Along with the U.S., NATO also warned Turkey over the purchase of the S-400 missile defense system from Russia.

America even banned some defense aid to Turkey. However, Turkey claimed that no country could stop it, which obviously clarified further deepening of relations between the two countries. Before the outbreak of covid-19 in 2019, 70, 00,000 Russian tourists came to Turkey, which was more than any other country, and on the other hand, Russia is building a nuclear power plant in the South of Turkey, which will be working from 2023. Earlier this week, when Turkish president Erdogan was on a visit to Russia, he praised Russia for tourism. Despite the commercial relations, both countries have some spoilers which are on the grounds of war. Russia stands with Bashar Al-Assad’s regime, while Turkey keeps supporting its rebel fighters.

Ankara is increasingly charting its course; despite relying on the United States and NATO for security, it is mainly unrestrained by the wishes of its traditional security partners.

Furthermore, America and NATO should actively consider how far Turkey’s political deterioration could go, as well as how to reduce exposure to Ankara’s vagaries, rather than digging in alongside an aggressive and unreliable autocratic government.

However, despite being warned by the U.S., Turkey is likely to strengthen its relations with Russia. Now, in response, what hardline steps the U.S. is going to take is yet to be seen.

REFERENCES:

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(Note: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Global Outlook.)

Originally published at https://theglobaloutlook.in on October 19, 2021.